NATSEM. Image:

NATSEM. Image:

The National Center for Social and Economic Modelling (Natsem) has returned the results of an analysis into the impact of Budget measures in individual electorates.

Over 150 electorates were ranked in order of the severity of the proposed Budget impacts. The study also included measures associated, but outside, the Budget; things like the axing of the Carbon Tax and the Schookids Bonus.

Not surprisingly, the University of Canberra’s think tank has found that 14 of the 15 biggest loser-electorates belong to Labour-held safe seats; most of them in Western Sydney and outer Melbourne.

The hardest hit is the Guilford and Yagoona western Sydney seat of Blaxland, a Labour safe-seat. Natsec predicted that by 2017 the mean hit per household will amount to $1000 per year. For households with children this blows out to around $2100.

The Taylor Lakes and Roxbury Park Labour safe seat of Calwell, in north-western Melbourne, gets the gong in Victoria. By 2017 Natsec models a $783 mean increase for household budgets. For those households with children this rises to over $2000.

Natsem principal research fellow Ben Phillips told reporters, “The smallest impacts are, basically, in the electorates of the Liberal frontbenchers.”

However, Mr Phillips also noted that the 2 per cent “Temporary Budget Repair Levy” would be one of the first measures to kick in and affect these Liberal blue-ribbon electorates.

Malcolm Turnbull’s Harbourside seat of Wentworth was least affected by the Budget measures. Natsec modelled only a $70 increase by 2017, when the budget rear levy ends. For a household with children the mean increase works out to around $620 per year.

Treasurer Joe Hockey’s North Sydney electorate comes in as third-least affect.

Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s seat of Warringah as fifth-least affected.

The top fifteen least affected electorates include those held by Foreign Minister Julie Bishop (Curtin, WA) Trade Minister Andrew Robb (Goldstein, Vic) and PM Parliamentary Secretary Josh Frydenberg (Kooyong, Vic).

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